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The effect of adolescent overweight on future adult coronary heart disease (CHD) is not known.

We estimated the prevalence of obese 35-year-olds in 2020 on the basis of adolescent overweight in 2000 and historical trends regarding overweight adolescents who become obese adults. We then used the CHD Policy Model, a state-transition computer simulation of U.S. residents who are 35 years of age or older, to project the annual excess incidence and prevalence of CHD, the total number of excess CHD events, and excess deaths from both CHD and other causes attributable to obesity from 2020 to 2035. We also modeled the effect of treating obesity-related increases in blood pressure and dyslipidemia.

Adolescent overweight is projected to increase the prevalence of obese 35-year-olds in 2020 to a range of 30 to 37% in men and 34 to 44% in women. As a consequence of this …