作者
Ehsan Mazloumi, Geoff Rose, Graham Currie, Sara Moridpour
发表日期
2011/4/1
期刊
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
卷号
24
期号
3
页码范围
534-542
出版商
Pergamon
简介
Neural networks have been employed in a multitude of transportation engineering applications because of their powerful capabilities to replicate patterns in field data. Predictions are always subject to uncertainty arising from two sources: model structure and training data. For each prediction point, the former can be quantified by a confidence interval, whereas total prediction uncertainty can be represented by constructing a prediction interval. While confidence intervals are well known in the transportation engineering context, very little attention has been paid to construction of prediction intervals for neural networks. The proposed methodology in this paper provides a foundation for constructing prediction intervals for neural networks and quantifying the extent that each source of uncertainty contributes to total prediction uncertainty. The application of the proposed methodology to predict bus travel time over four bus …
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