作者
Joaquin Navajas, Tamara Niella, Gerry Garbulsky, Bahador Bahrami, Mariano Sigman
发表日期
2018/2
期刊
Nature Human Behaviour
卷号
2
期号
2
页码范围
126-132
出版商
Nature Publishing Group UK
简介
The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgement, –. This centenarian finding,, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd. Here, we show that if a large crowd is structured in small independent groups, deliberation and social influence within groups improve the crowd’s collective accuracy. We asked a live crowd (N = 5,180) to respond to general-knowledge questions (for example, "What is the height of the Eiffel Tower?"). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that averaging consensus decisions was substantially more …
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