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This study examined the role of cognitive factors—such as expectancies regarding the consequences of not drinking and perceptions of peer drinking—in mediating affective and personality-based risk associated with adolescents' decisions to initiate alcohol use.

Nondrinking high school students (N = 1,268) completed confidential surveys on adolescent attitudes and behaviors related to substance use in 2 consecutive years. Self-reported alcohol use was assessed in both years, and social anxiety, depression, sensation seeking, expectancies for not drinking, and perceived peer alcohol use were assessed in the second year.

The odds of initiation were considerably lower for students with higher expectancies for not drinking, compared with those with lower expectancies. Odds of initiation rose significantly with each additional perceived peer drink reported. Both cognitive factors mediated …