作者
Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, Vassilios Assimakopoulos
发表日期
2020/1/1
期刊
International Journal of Forecasting
卷号
36
期号
1
页码范围
54-74
出版商
Elsevier
简介
The M4 Competition follows on from the three previous M competitions, the purpose of which was to learn from empirical evidence both how to improve the forecasting accuracy and how such learning could be used to advance the theory and practice of forecasting. The aim of M4 was to replicate and extend the three previous competitions by: (a) significantly increasing the number of series, (b) expanding the number of forecasting methods, and (c) including prediction intervals in the evaluation process as well as point forecasts. This paper covers all aspects of M4 in detail, including its organization and running, the presentation of its results, the top-performing methods overall and by categories, its major findings and their implications, and the computational requirements of the various methods. Finally, it summarizes its main conclusions and states the expectation that its series will become a testing ground for the …
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S Makridakis, E Spiliotis, V Assimakopoulos - International Journal of Forecasting, 2020