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Through movement capacity is an essential factor used to reflect intersection performance, especially for signalized intersections, where a large proportion of vehicle demand is making through movements. Generally, left-turn spillback is considered a key contributor to affect through movement capacity, and blockage to the left-turn bay is known to decrease left-turn capacity. Previous studies have focused primarily on estimating the through movement capacity under a lagging protected only left-turn (lagging POLT) signal setting, as a left-turn spillback is more likely to happen under such a condition. However, previous studies contained assumptions (e.g., omit spillback), or were dedicated to one specific signal setting. Therefore, in this study, through movement capacity models based on probabilistic modeling of spillback and blockage scenarios are established under four different signal settings (i.e., leading …