作者
Chris Estes, Quentin M Anstee, Maria Teresa Arias-Loste, Heike Bantel, Stefano Bellentani, Joan Caballeria, Massimo Colombo, Antonio Craxi, Javier Crespo, Christopher P Day, Yuichiro Eguchi, Andreas Geier, Loreta A Kondili, Daniela C Kroy, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Rohit Loomba, Michael P Manns, Giulio Marchesini, Atsushi Nakajima, Francesco Negro, Salvatore Petta, Vlad Ratziu, Manuel Romero-Gomez, Arun Sanyal, Jörn M Schattenberg, Frank Tacke, Junko Tanaka, Christian Trautwein, Lai Wei, Stefan Zeuzem, Homie Razavi
发表日期
2018/10/1
期刊
Journal of hepatology
卷号
69
期号
4
页码范围
896-904
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background & Aims
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods
A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results
If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a …
学术搜索中的文章
C Estes, QM Anstee, MT Arias-Loste, H Bantel… - Journal of hepatology, 2018