作者
Arnór Bragi Elvarsson
发表日期
2018/7/2
简介
Design of embedded parking infrastructures assumes the parking demand to be stable over the infrastructure’s life-time. However, the looming mobility trend shift towards shared automated vehicles (AVs) make future parking needs highly uncertain and parking demand could thus disappear over an infrastructure’s life-time. A method is needed to optimize the parking design considering uncertainty of future demand so its use can be transitioned later on. The Real Option method implements flexibility allowing owners to neither under-, nor overinvest, thus minimizing the risks of their decisions. In this work, a new methodology is proposed to optimize the design of embedded parking infrastructure. By defining the uncertainty over the reduction in parking demand due to deployment of AVs, simulating it with the Monte Carlo method and integrating operational and refurbishing costs of different design alternatives, life-time net benefits are calculated. The methodology is applied to a residential building in western Switzerland designed with a 463-lot parking facility. The work addresses a traditional approach and a flexible approach of the 14’000 m2 parking infrastructure, costing 10 and 11 million CHF in construction, respectively. A traditionally designed infrastructure is demolished for 2 million CHF and reconstructed as a residential building for 29 million CHF. Instead, a flexible adaptation to residential use costs 21 million CHF. A multi-stage intervention, converting the parking infrastructure's floors one by one, is the most profitable solution of those considered with net benefits of 2.7 million CHF. A single-stage flexible design is the second-best option …