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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established jointly by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess periodically the science, impacts and socioeconomics of climate change and of adaptation and mitigation options. The IPCC provides, on request, scientific and technical advice to the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its bodies. In response to a 1994 evaluation of the earlier IPCC IS92 emissions scenarios, the 1996 Plenary of the IPCC requested this Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)(see Appendix I for the Terms of Reference). This report was accepted by the Working Group III (WGIII) plenary session in March 2000. The long-term nature and uncertainty of climate change and its driving forces require scenarios that extend to the end of the 21st century. This Report describes the new scenarios and how they were developed.

The SRES scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions, from demographic to technological and economic developments. As required by the Terms of Reference, none of the scenarios in the set includes any future policies that explicitly address climate change, although all scenarios necessarily encompass various policies of other types. The set of SRES emissions scenarios is based on an extensive assessment of the literature, six alternative modeling approaches, and an “open process” that solicited wide participation and feedback from many groups and individuals. The SRES scenarios include the range …