作者
Bo Xu, Jun Cai, Daihai He, Gerardo Chowell, Bing Xu
发表日期
2020/2/7
期刊
Journal of theoretical biology
卷号
486
页码范围
110070
出版商
Academic Press
简介
Multiple-wave outbreaks have been documented for influenza pandemics particularly in the temperate zone, and occasionally for seasonal influenza epidemics in the tropical zone. The mechanisms shaping multiple-wave influenza outbreaks are diverse but are yet to be summarized in a systematic fashion. For this purpose, we described 12 distinct mechanistic models, among which five models were proposed for the first time, that support two waves of infection in a single influenza season, and classified them into five categories according to heterogeneities in host, pathogen, space, time and their combinations, respectively. To quantify the number of infection waves, we proposed three metrics that provide robust and intuitive results for real epidemics. Further, we performed sensitivity analyses on key parameters in each model and found that reducing the basic reproduction number or the transmission rate, limiting …
引用总数
20202021202220234623
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