作者
Huaiyu Tian, Zhe Sun, Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Jing Yang, Bernard Cazelles, Shanqian Huang, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Oliver G Pybus, Bing Xu
发表日期
2017/8/3
期刊
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
卷号
11
期号
8
页码范围
e0005694
出版商
Public Library of Science
简介
The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014–2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1–3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socio-economic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation.
引用总数
20172018201920202021202220232024210142321202410
学术搜索中的文章
H Tian, Z Sun, NR Faria, J Yang, B Cazelles, S Huang… - PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2017