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Asymptomatic multiple myeloma (AMM) is characterized by a constant risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma. To evaluate previously recognized risk factors and to identify high-risk features we analyzed 96 patients with AMM and at least 18 months of follow-up. The progression rate at 1, 2, and 3 years was 8%, 15% and 26%, respectively, and the projected 5-year progression rate was 38%. Extensive bone marrow (BM) infiltration, abnormal free light chain (FLC) ratio and serum monoclonal (M)-protein⩾ 3 gr/dl were the most significant factors for progression, whereas the type of heavy (IgG vs IgA) or light chain or immunoparesis of the uninvolved immunoglobulins were not. Abnormal marrow signal of magnetic resonance imaging of the spine was associated with a significant risk of progression (median 15 months, P= 0.001). Extensive BM infiltration⩾ 60%(hazard ratio, HR: 13.7, P< 0.001) and FLC ratio⩾ 100 …