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An increasing number of models for predicting land use change in rapidly urbanizing regions are being proposed and built using ideas from cellular automata (CA). Calibrating such models to real situations is highly problematic and to date, serious attention has not been focused on the estimation problem. In this paper, we propose a structure for simulating urban change based on estimating land use transitions using elementary probabilistic methods which draw their inspiration from Bayes’ theory and the related ‘weights of evidence’ approach. These land use change probabilities drive a CA model based on eight cell Moore neighborhoods implemented through empirical land use allocation algorithms. The model framework has been applied to a medium-sized town, Bauru, in the west of São Paulo State, Brazil. We show how various socio-economic and infrastructural factors can be combined using the weights …