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Device-free positioning allows to localize and track passive targets (i.e., not carrying any electronic device) moving in an area monitored by a dense network of low-power and battery-operated wireless sensors. The technology is promising for a wide number of applications, ranging from ambient intelligence in smart spaces, intrusion detection, emergency and rescue operations in critical areas. In this paper, a new approach is proposed where both the average path-loss and the fluctuations of the received signal strength induced by the moving target are jointly modeled based on the theory of diffraction. A novel stochastic model is derived and used for the evaluation of fundamental performance limits. The model is proved to be tight enough to be adopted for real-time estimation of the target location. The proposed localization system is validated by extensive experimental studies in both indoor and outdoor …