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The introduction and adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will likely reshape the transportation system and many economic activities. The economic literature on technology adoption, based on studies in agriculture and other sectors, provides lessons on the diffusion of AVs and its social and economic impacts. We rely on the threshold model of diffusion, where heterogeneous agents make decisions pursuing their self‐interests. Applications of the threshold model point to case studies of other technologies where one can gain information and make predictions about the future of AVs. We find that private ownership of AVs may prevail after a transition period, as was the case in other technologies like computers, tractors, and conventional vehicles. With technological progress, the cost of privately owning AVs may decline. Further, there will be an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita, there may be …