作者
Jianming Ma, Kara M Kockelman, Paul Damien
发表日期
2008/5/1
期刊
Accident Analysis & Prevention
卷号
40
期号
3
页码范围
964-975
出版商
Pergamon
简介
Numerous efforts have been devoted to investigating crash occurrence as related to roadway design features, environmental factors and traffic conditions. However, most of the research has relied on univariate count models; that is, traffic crash counts at different levels of severity are estimated separately, which may neglect shared information in unobserved error terms, reduce efficiency in parameter estimates, and lead to potential biases in sample databases. This paper offers a multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) specification that simultaneously models crash counts by injury severity. The MVPLN specification allows for a more general correlation structure as well as overdispersion. This approach addresses several questions that are difficult to answer when estimating crash counts separately. Thanks to recent advances in crash modeling and Bayesian statistics, parameter estimation is done within the …
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