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It is hypothesized that vitamin D contributes to the aetiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes). This study's objective was to examine the relationships between baseline vitamin D status (as measured by plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration) and both prevalent diabetes and prospective risk of developing diabetes, including prediabetes, in a population with historically low levels of vitamin D.

In this prospective cohort study, data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), a nationally representative cohort of adults aged ≥50 years residing in Ireland were analysed, including wave 1 (October 2009–June 2011) (n = 5272) and wave 3 (March 2014–October 2015) (n = 3828). Those aged <50 years at baseline or who did not complete the health assessment were excluded. Logistic regression models examined the associations between baseline vitamin D concentration (nmol/L …