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The mechanical properties of a material are intimately related to its microstructure. This is particularly important for predicting mechanical behavior of polycrystalline metals, where microstructural variations dictate the expected material strength. Until now, the lack of microstructural variability in available datasets precluded the development of robust physics-based theoretical models that account for randomness of microstructures. To address this, we have developed a probabilistic machine learning framework to predict the flow stress as a function of variations in the microstructural features. In this framework, we first generated an extensive database of flow stress for a set of over a million randomly sampled microstructural features, and then applied a combination of mixture models and neural networks on the generated database to quantify the flow stress distribution and the relative importance of microstructural …