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People with radiographic evidence for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), but negative sputum cultures, have increased risk of developing culture-positive TB. Recent expansion of X-ray screening is leading to increased identification of this group. We set out to synthesise the evidence for treatment to prevent progression to culture-positive disease.

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched for prospective trials evaluating the efficacy of TB regimens against placebo, observation, or alternative regimens, for the treatment of adults and children with radiographic evidence of TB but culture-negative respiratory samples. Databases were searched up to 18 Oct 2022. Study quality was assessed using ROB 2·0 and ROBINS-I. The primary outcome was progression to culture-positive TB. Meta-analysis with a random effects model was conducted to estimate pooled efficacy. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021248486).

We included 13 trials (32,568 individuals) conducted between 1955 and 2018. Radiographic and bacteriological criteria for inclusion varied. 19·1% to 57·9% of participants with active x-ray changes and no treatment progressed to culture-positive disease. Progression was reduced with any treatment (6 studies, risk ratio [RR] 0·27, 95%CI 0·13–0·56), although multi-drug TB treatment (RR 0·11, 95%CI 0·05–0·23) was significantly more effective than isoniazid treatment (RR 0·63, 95%CI 0·35–1·13) (p = 0·0002).

Multi-drug regimens were associated with significantly reduced risk of progression to TB disease for individuals with radiographically apparent …