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Problem: High costs and low ridership are the bane of fixed-guideway transit investments. The net capital and operating cost per passenger mile of recent investments ranged from $0.22 to over $10 in 2008. A better understanding of characteristics of the most successful transit investments can help inform future investment policy and improve the performance of existing transit systems.

Purpose: We evaluated the ridership, operating costs, and capital costs of recent transit investments and identified job and population densities that can support more cost-effective fixed-guideway transit service.

Methods: Combining investment and station-level data from over 50 American fixed-guideway transit investments with time-series data on 23 transit systems and surrounding land uses, we modeled the influence of job and population densities on transit ridership and capital and operating costs. Based on these results, we …