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Growth curve modelling such as trajectory analysis is useful for examining the longitudinal nature of depressive symptoms, their antecedents and later consequences. However, issues in interpretation associated with this methodology could hinder the translation from results to policy changes and interventions. The aim of this article is to provide a “model interpretation framework” for highlighting growth curve results in a more interpretable manner. Here we demonstrate the association between childhood trauma and trajectories of depressive symptoms. Childhood trauma has been shown to a be strong predictor for later depression, but less is known how childhood trauma has an effect throughout adolescence and young adulthood. Identifying when childhood trauma (and its severity) is likely to have its greatest impact on depression is important for determining the timing of interventions for depression.

We used data on over 6,500 individuals from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) to estimate trajectories of depressive symptoms between the ages of 11 and 24. Depressive symptoms were measured using the short mood and feelings questionnaire (SMFQ) across 9 occasions. Childhood trauma was assessed between the ages of 5 and 10 years old, and we estimated population averaged multilevel growth curves of depressive symptoms for exposure to trauma (yes vs no) and then in a separate model, the number of trauma types reported such as inter-personal violence or neglect (coded as 0, 1, 2, 3+). We then calculated what the depressive symptoms scores would be ages 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22 …