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DEFORESTATION PREDICTIONS FOR AMAZONIA presented by WF Laurance et al. in 2001 (1) are based on the assumption that the road infrastructure is the prime factor driving deforestation. Much has already been said by the scientific community about their model-its apocalyptical results are based on simple extrapolation of past patterns, disregarding the region's enormous biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity (2, 3)-but recently the authors reinforced their arguable results (" Deforestation in Amazonia," Letters, 21 May 2004, p. 1109), blaming planned infrastructure and the land speculation it provokes for the current high deforestation rates in the Amazon, which we consider an oversimplified view of current deforestation causes (4).

Deforestation rates have increased significantly in the last two years (5), but in spite of the ambitious infrastructure plans announced in the mid-1990s, very few federal …