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Follow-up studies have shown that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes, but currently, it is uncertain whether this risk changes with increasing severity of NAFLD. We performed a meta-analysis of relevant studies to quantify the magnitude of the association between NAFLD and risk of incident diabetes.

We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science databases from January 2000 to June 2020 using predefined keywords to identify observational studies with a follow-up duration of at least 1 year, in which NAFLD was diagnosed by imaging techniques or biopsy. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects modelling.

33 studies with 501 022 individuals (30.8% with NAFLD) and 27 953 cases of incident diabetes over a median of 5 years (IQR: 4.0–19 years) were included. Patients with NAFLD had a …