作者
Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Massimiliano Marcellino, Nico Petz
发表日期
2024/2/27
期刊
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
简介
We develop a nonparametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a Gaussian process prior on the functional relationship that determines the conditional mean of the model, hence, the name of Gaussian process vector autoregression (GP-VAR). A flexible stochastic volatility specification is used to provide additional flexibility and control for heteroscedasticity. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation is carried out through an efficient and scalable algorithm which can handle large models. The GP-VAR is used to analyze the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty, with a particular emphasis on time variation and asymmetries in the transmission mechanisms.
引用总数
学术搜索中的文章
N Hauzenberger, F Huber, M Marcellino, N Petz - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2024