作者
Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Michael Pfarrhofer, Thomas O Zörner
发表日期
2021/4/27
期刊
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
卷号
25
期号
2
页码范围
20180069
出版商
De Gruyter
简介
This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression coefficients. The mean as well as the variances of this distribution are treated as fully stochastic and suitable shrinkage priors are used. These shrinkage priors enable to assess which coefficients differ across regimes in a flexible manner. In the case of similar coefficients, our model pushes the respective regions of the parameter space towards the common distribution. This allows for selecting a parsimonious model while still maintaining sufficient flexibility to control for sudden shifts in the parameters, if necessary. We apply our modeling approach to real-time Euro area data and assume transition probabilities between expansionary and recessionary regimes to be driven by the …
引用总数
202020212022202320242232
学术搜索中的文章
N Hauzenberger, F Huber, M Pfarrhofer, TO Zörner - Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2021