作者
Pedro Gete, Givi Melkadze
发表日期
2018/3/1
期刊
Journal of International Economics
卷号
111
页码范围
143-158
出版商
North-Holland
简介
Changes in country-specific aggregate volatility are positively correlated with the current account but negatively correlated with investment, output and credit flows. An International Real Business Cycle model with time-varying aggregate uncertainty, through a precautionary savings channel, can account for the positive correlation but implies counterfactual comovements for the other variables. Adding a credit supply channel with default and lenders exposed to aggregate risk allows the model to match all the facts. Higher volatility contracts credit supply and lowers investment and output. The current account turns to a surplus because savings increase, but also because investment collapses.
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