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The purpose of this paper is to identify which of the world's cereal producing regions are likely to become vulnerable to climate change over the 21st century by identifying those regions that will be (1) exposed to climatic stress and (2) have a limited capacity to adapt. First, we use a global hydrological model to identify regions likely to be exposed to drought, defined here as a location where the available soil moisture is projected to decline by the 2050s and 2080s relative to the mean soil moisture observed between 1990 and 2005. Second, we use agricultural, meteorological and socio-economic data to develop models of adaptive capacity and run these models to show where adaptive capacity is likely to decline by the 2050s and 2080s relative to the baseline period of 1990–2005. Third, we contrast the hydrological and adaptive capacity model outputs to identify “vulnerability hotspots” for wheat and maize. Here …