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This paper takes a realistic approach to develop a techno-economic analysis for fixed-route autonomous shuttles.

To develop a model for analysis, the current state of technology was used to approximate three timelines for achieving SAE level 5 capabilities: progressive, realistic, and conservative. Within these timelines, there are four different increments for advancements in the technology laid out as follows: SAE Level 0-human driver, SAE Level 4-in-vehicle safety operator, SAE Level 4-remote safety operator, and SAE Level 5-no safety operator. These increments in the changes of the technology were chosen based on the trends in the industry. Various shuttle models were used based on different rider quantities and drive-train requirements (electric vs gas)