作者
Ratnadip Adhikari, RK Agrawal
发表日期
2012
研讨会论文
Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining: 16th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2012, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, May 29-June 1, 2012, Proceedings, Part I 16
页码范围
38-49
出版商
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
简介
Improvement of time series forecasting accuracy is an active research area having significant importance in many practical domains. Extensive works in literature suggest that substantial enhancement in accuracies can be achieved by combining forecasts from different models. However, forecasts combination is a difficult as well as a challenging task due to various reasons and often simple linear methods are used for this purpose. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear weighted ensemble mechanism for combining forecasts from multiple time series models. The proposed method considers the individual forecasts as well as the correlations in pairs of forecasts for creating the ensemble. A successive validation approach is formulated to determine the appropriate combination weights. Three popular models are used to build up the ensemble which is then empirically tested on three real-world time series …
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
R Adhikari, RK Agrawal - Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining …, 2012