作者
Manuel Adrian Acuña-Zegarra, Mario Santana-Cibrian, Jorge X Velasco-Hernandez
发表日期
2020/5/6
期刊
Mathematical Biosciences
卷号
325
期号
108370
页码范围
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.10837
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Sanitary Emergency Measures (SEM) were implemented in Mexico on March 30th, 2020 requiring the suspension of non-essential activities. This action followed a Healthy Distance Sanitary action on March 23rd, 2020. The aim of both measures was to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 in Mexico by lowering the effective contact rate. Using a modification of the Kermack–McKendrick SEIR model we explore the effect of behavioral changes required to lower community transmission by introducing a time-varying contact rate, and the consequences of disease spread in a population subject to suspension of non-essential activities. Our study shows that there exists a trade-off between the proportion of the population under SEM and the average time an individual is committed to all the behavioral changes needed to achieve an effective social distancing. This trade-off generates an optimum value for the …
引用总数
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