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The surface water loop heat pump (SWLHP) is a renewable energy technology applied to support heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to address the threat of global warming. However, the operation of SWLHP-PPP projects is challenging because the demand uncertainty brought by occupancy rate growth (ORG) affects SWLHP systems' coefficient of performance (COP), leading to cost uncertainty of the SWLHP-PPP projects. In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to examine how ORG (characterized by the initial occupancy rate, IOR, and the pace of occupancy rate growth, PORG) and COP affect the private sector's and government's pricing and subsidy decisions, respectively. Our findings identify two critical coefficients, the ORG-related coefficient and the COP-related coefficient, which influence the optimal price and government subsidies. Specifically, the optimal price declines …