作者
Qingji Zhou, Yiik Diew Wong, Hui Shan Loh, Kum Fai Yuen
发表日期
2018/6/30
期刊
Safety Science
卷号
105
页码范围
149-157
出版商
Elsevier
简介
This paper proposes a quantitative human reliability analysis (HRA) model based on fuzzy logic theory, Bayesian network, and cognitive reliability & error analysis method (CREAM) for the tanker shipping industry. The common performance conditions (CPCs) in conventional CREAM approach are custom-modified to better capture the salient aspects of the situations and conditions for on-board tanker work. Fuzzy logic technique using triangle and trapezoidal membership functions is applied to model the uncertainty and ambiguity of the CPCs as well the control modes in CREAM. A Bayesian network reasoning model using the membership of CPCs as inputs is developed which determines the probability distribution of the control modes. Human error probability (HEP) is obtained from memberships of the control modes and the results of Bayesian network reasoning. A case study in tanker shipping industry with 18 …
引用总数
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