作者
Nishant Kumar, Jimi Oke, Bat-hen Nahmias-Biran
发表日期
2021/11/22
期刊
Scientific reports
卷号
11
期号
1
页码范围
22665
出版商
Nature Publishing Group UK
简介
We build on recent work to develop a fully mechanistic, activity-based and highly spatio-temporally resolved epidemiological model which leverages person-trajectories obtained from an activity-based model calibrated for two full-scale prototype cities, consisting of representative synthetic populations and mobility networks for two contrasting auto-dependent city typologies. We simulate the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic in both cities to analyze spreading patterns in urban networks across various activity types. Investigating the impact of the transit network, we find that its removal dampens disease propagation significantly, suggesting that transit restriction is more critical for mitigating post-peak disease spreading in transit dense cities. In the latter stages of disease spread, we find that the greatest share of infections occur at work locations. A statistical analysis of the resulting activity-based contact networks …
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