作者
Sen Hu, Adrian O’Hagan, James Sweeney, Mohammadhossein Ghahramani
发表日期
2021/7
期刊
Annals of Actuarial Science
卷号
15
期号
2
页码范围
367-393
出版商
Cambridge University Press
简介
Spatial analysis ranges from simple univariate descriptive statistics to complex multivariate analyses and is typically used to investigate spatial patterns or to identify spatially linked consumer behaviours in insurance. This paper investigates if the incorporation of publicly available spatially linked demographic census data at population level is useful in modelling customers’ lapse behaviour (i.e. stopping payment of premiums) in life insurance policies, based on data provided by an insurance company in Ireland. From the insurance company’s perspective, identifying and assessing such lapsing risks in advance permit engagement to prevent such incidents, saving money by re-evaluating customer acquisition channels and improving capital reserve calculation and preparation. Incorporating spatial analysis in lapse modelling is expected to improve lapse prediction. Therefore, a hybrid approach to lapse prediction is …
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