Prediction of default probability by using statistical models for rare events

EO Ogundimu - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A …, 2019 - academic.oup.com
… how penalized regression models such as Firth’s estimator, … scoring models, are widely
used in finance and banking. … use of generalized extreme value (GEV) regression for modelling …

A novel XGBoost extension for credit scoring class-imbalanced data combining a generalized extreme value link and a modified focal loss function

J Mushava, M Murray - Expert Systems with Applications, 2022 - Elsevier
… for estimating credit losses. As a result, even minor improvements in the predictive strength
of credit scoring models could have a substantial financial … of default, we will fit our models to …

An innovative feature selection method for support vector machines and its test on the estimation of the credit risk of default

E Sariev, G Germano - Review of Financial Economics, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
… We estimate the probability of default on credit risk data for corporate and retail clients.2.
We compare support vector machines (SVM) and logistic regression (LR).3. The SVM model

Developing an impairment loss given default model using weighted logistic regression illustrated on a secured retail bank portfolio

DG Breed, T Verster, WD Schutte, N Siddiqi - Risks, 2019 - mdpi.com
absolute value of the standardised estimates can serve to provide an approximate ranking of
the relative importance of the input variables on the fitted logistic model (… regression models

Modelling spatial dependence for Loss Given Default in peer-to-peer lending

R Calabrese, L Zanin - Expert Systems with Applications, 2022 - Elsevier
… We propose estimating a model for Loss Given Default (LGD) … link function given by the
Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) … To estimate the GAMLSS beta regression model on all the …

Predicting failure in the US banking sector: An extreme gradient boosting approach

P Carmona, F Climent, A Momparler - International Review of Economics & …, 2019 - Elsevier
… identified to anticipate and prevent bank defaults. The data, which … similarly to conventional
regression models. Although XGBoost … The authors’ estimates from a multi-period logit model

Assessing bank default determinants via machine learning

V Lagasio, F Pampurini, A Pezzola, AG Quaranta - Information Sciences, 2022 - Elsevier
… are shown to be much more successful than traditional regression analysis [47]. Indeed, …
We dropped all of the banks for which it was not possible to calculate the proxies for all the …

Anticipating bank distress in the Eurozone: An extreme gradient boosting approach

F Climent, A Momparler, P Carmona - Journal of business research, 2019 - Elsevier
bank defaults. Identifying leading indicators of … banking failure model's generalization
capabilities and avoid problems of overfitting. For each parameter combination, we will calculate

Measuring systemic risk via GAS models and extreme value theory: Revisiting the 2007 financial crisis

PG Gavronski, FA Ziegelmann - Finance Research Letters, 2021 - Elsevier
extreme value theory, the Financial System Dependence Index (FSDI) which uses the spread
of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) of financial … to estimate their impacts on the financial system. …

Introduction to Extreme Value Theory: Applications to Risk Analysis and Management

M Kratz - 2017 MATRIX Annals, 2019 - Springer
… literature of extremes concerns the tail index estimation, which governs the probability of …
S&P500 absolute log-returns. Indeed, it is well known that the absolute value of financial returns …