Ever since the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, China has been at a crossroads. But the signposts show not just two alternative directions, but three. There are, of course, the two tendencies so familiar to students of contemporary China: retrogression and liberalization, or, as they will be called here, conservatism and reform. But there is another possibility that has been seen all too often in the rest of the communist and developing worlds: the possibility of substantial political and economic decay, leading perhaps to the collapse of the government or the disintegration of the nation-state.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the prospects for each of these three scenarios as China approaches the post-Deng era. The discussion of each of the alternatives will follow the same general outline: a definition of the general tendency in question; a description of its evolution since the death of Mao; and an assessment of its likely development in the decade ahead. Each section will also forecast the implications of the relevant scenario for the international community. The general conclusion is that decay is gradually replacing conservatism as the most likely alternative to continued reform.