A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities

AH Alizadeh, NK Nomikos, PK Pouliasis - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2008 - Elsevier
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2008Elsevier
This paper estimates constant and dynamic hedge ratios in the New York Mercantile
Exchange oil futures markets and examines their hedging performance. We also introduce a
Markov regime switching vector error correction model with GARCH error structure. This
specification links the concept of disequilibrium with that of uncertainty (as measured by the
conditional second moments) across high and low volatility regimes. Overall, in and out-of-
sample tests indicate that state dependent hedge ratios are able to provide significant …
This paper estimates constant and dynamic hedge ratios in the New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures markets and examines their hedging performance. We also introduce a Markov regime switching vector error correction model with GARCH error structure. This specification links the concept of disequilibrium with that of uncertainty (as measured by the conditional second moments) across high and low volatility regimes. Overall, in and out-of-sample tests indicate that state dependent hedge ratios are able to provide significant reduction in portfolio risk.
Elsevier
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