Accidents and decision making under uncertainty: A comparison of four models
Heinrich's (1931) classical study implies that most industrial accidents can be characterized
as a probabilistic result of human error. The present research quantifies Heinrich's
observation and compares four descriptive models of decision making in the abstracted
setting. The suggested quantification utilizes signal detection theory (Green & Swets, 1966).
It shows that Heinrich's observation can be described as a probabilistic signal detection task.
In a controlled experiment, 90 decision makers participated in 600 trials of six safety games …
as a probabilistic result of human error. The present research quantifies Heinrich's
observation and compares four descriptive models of decision making in the abstracted
setting. The suggested quantification utilizes signal detection theory (Green & Swets, 1966).
It shows that Heinrich's observation can be described as a probabilistic signal detection task.
In a controlled experiment, 90 decision makers participated in 600 trials of six safety games …
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