[PDF][PDF] Assessment of temporal trend of COVID-19 outbreak in India

A Gupta, B Pradhan - Center for Open Science, 2020 - opus.lib.uts.edu.au
Center for Open Science, 2020opus.lib.uts.edu.au
The COVID-19 pandemic has outspread obstreperously in India. Within a period of 95 days,
22 from March 02 to June 04, India surpassed 2 lakh in count of infected cases.
Approximately 3 23 out of each 1000 people in India has been tested till date and 53 per
1000 tests results positively 24 infected. During the first week of March, only 14 out of each
1000 tests were resulting as 25 positively infected and it has been extended at a rate of
71/1000 tests in the first week of June, 26 which may indicate a sign of community spread of …
The COVID-19 pandemic has outspread obstreperously in India. Within a period of 95 days, 22 from March 02 to June 04, India surpassed 2 lakh in count of infected cases. Approximately 3 23 out of each 1000 people in India has been tested till date and 53 per 1000 tests results positively 24 infected. During the first week of March, only 14 out of each 1000 tests were resulting as 25 positively infected and it has been extended at a rate of 71/1000 tests in the first week of June, 26 which may indicate a sign of community spread of this disease. Mann-Kendall test denotes that 27 the count of daily confirmed cases is significantly increasing with estimated Sen’s slope of~ 28 76 persons/day in entire country. This trend has escalated from~ 5 persons/day in March to~ 29 249 persons/day in the very first week of June. Among major affected cities, Mumbai and Delhi 30 are noted with extremely high rate of increase. In the 3 out of 5 megacities in India: Delhi, 31 Mumbai, and Chennai, the count of daily transmission have reached beyond of 1200 after the 32 third week of May which indicate that the allowance to the migrants might make an easy-way 33 of coronavirus transmission. Additionally, Pettitt test indicates an abrupt change in increasing 34 trend over entire country on April 17, 2020. The nationwide transmission rate was~ 22 35 persons/day before April 17 and afterward it amplified to~ 174 persons/day. Moreover, all the 36 major affected cities also registered multi-fold increase in transmission rate after the evaluated 37 change point over that city; explicitly, this increment was more than 20 times over Pune, 38 Chennai and Ahmedabad. Therefore, the nationwide imposed lockdown in India might have 39 very less impact on flattening the curve of daily confirmed case. 40
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