Decisive evidence on a smaller-than-you-think phenomenon: revisiting the “1-in-X” effect on subjective medical probabilities
Accurate perception of medical probabilities communicated to patients is a cornerstone of
informed decision making. People, however, are prone to biases in probability perception.
Recently, Pighin and others extended the list of such biases with evidence that “1-in-X”
ratios (eg,“1 in 12”) led to greater perceived probability and worry about health outcomes
than “N-in-X* N” ratios (eg,“10 in 120”). Subsequently, the recommendation was to avoid
using “1-in-X” ratios when communicating probabilistic information to patients. To warrant …
informed decision making. People, however, are prone to biases in probability perception.
Recently, Pighin and others extended the list of such biases with evidence that “1-in-X”
ratios (eg,“1 in 12”) led to greater perceived probability and worry about health outcomes
than “N-in-X* N” ratios (eg,“10 in 120”). Subsequently, the recommendation was to avoid
using “1-in-X” ratios when communicating probabilistic information to patients. To warrant …
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