Decomposing Aggregate Trade Flows: New Evidence from US Traders

F Kamal, CJ Krizan - US Census Bureau Center for Economic …, 2012 - papers.ssrn.com
F Kamal, CJ Krizan
US Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies Paper No. CES-WP-12-17, 2012papers.ssrn.com
Using firm-level data on export transactions, we uncover a rich set of results about the
extensive margins of exporting and exporter responses during periods of global downturns.
We perform our analysis with respect to firm size, age, ownership status, and sector to
emphasize the role of firm heterogeneity. We uncover a larger role for firm entry and exit in
changes in annual export flows of single-unit, smaller, and younger firms. Young, small firms
perform best during both periods of crises as well as non-crises periods. We also …
Abstract
Using firm-level data on export transactions, we uncover a rich set of results about the extensive margins of exporting and exporter responses during periods of global downturns. We perform our analysis with respect to firm size, age, ownership status, and sector to emphasize the role of firm heterogeneity. We uncover a larger role for firm entry and exit in changes in annual export flows of single-unit, smaller, and younger firms. Young, small firms perform best during both periods of crises as well as non-crises periods. We also decompose the margins of US imports at the US importer, foreign supplier, and US importer-foreign supplier pair levels. While export flows are closely correlated with global business cycles, import flows more closely approximate US economic cycles. Additionally, both pair and foreign supplier flows are far more volatile than US import flows, that is, US importer-foreign supplier matches experience more churning on average than do either US importers or foreign suppliers.
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