Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been identified as a biomarker for multiple malignancies. There is emerging evidence that implicates neutrophils in cancer progression. Alterations of neutrophil counts and NLR during treatment may reflect a change in oncologic outcome that is more important than baseline values. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic role of NLR changes during the treatment trajectory of patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma.

NLR values of patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma who underwent surgery between 2005 and 2016 were measured at baseline and in the late postoperative period. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The secondary outcome was pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

330 patients were included; mean age was 65.6 years, and 82% were male. Most patients had cT3 (74.8%), cN-positive (59.7%) disease. Two-thirds (65.2%) received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The independent predictors of OS were pathological N-stage, size of primary tumor, and delta NLR (late – baseline NLR). Patients with persistently elevated NLR did worse than those with decreasing NLR trends between baseline and postoperative time points (3-year OS 43.4% versus 71.3%, p < 0.0001, 3-year DFS 29.7% versus 61.9%, p < 0.0001). High baseline and postoperative NLR were associated with significantly worse OS and DFS. Patients with complete pathological response had lower mean baseline NLR.

Dynamic changes in NLR during treatment are associated with survival and may be more informative than static baseline values.