We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in the evaluation of punitive
incarceration reform on crime, inequality and the macroeconomy. Individuals' past choices
related to crime and employment under old policies have persistent consequences that limit
their future responses to policy changes. Novel cohort evidence is provided in support of this
mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory calibrated using restricted administrative
data predicts nuanced, non-monotone dynamics of crime and incarceration similar to the US …

It may take many years for the full effects of a particular policy change to become fully
evident. As a result, short-run analysis of criminal justice policies may give an incomplete or
misleading picture of the true consequences of tough-on-crime policies. In this research, the
authors present evidence of a “lost cohort” of individuals born in the mid-to-late 1960s—
individuals who reached the prime crime age of their twenties in the 1980s—who have
higher rates of prison admission and arrests throughout their lives compared to the …