Approaches provide for evaluating lift associated with supplemental content based on a
Monte Carlo unexposed method. Users may be separated into groups of exposed users that
have interacted with supplemental content and an unexposed group that has not interacted
with the supple mental content. Activity of the users in the unexposed groups may be tracked
over conversion windows that are obtained, at least in part, from conversion windows of the
exposed users. Thereafter, conversion rates for the unex posed group may be determined …