Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

P Pinson, R Girard - Applied Energy, 2012 - Elsevier
Applied Energy, 2012Elsevier
Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input
to multistage decision-making problems eg multivariate stochastic optimization and
stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to
substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their
verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead
time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of …
Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.
Elsevier
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