Expected goals in football: Improving model performance and demonstrating value

J Mead, A O'Hare, P McMenemy - Plos one, 2023 - journals.plos.org
… trees) based on the predictions that were made by the previous one. In this study, two
boosting algorithms have been chosen to model expected goals—AdaBoost and XGBoost. …

[HTML][HTML] A machine learning approach for player and position adjusted expected goals in football (soccer)

JH Hewitt, O Karakuş - Franklin Open, 2023 - Elsevier
… an Expected Goals (xG) model ‘from scratch’ and predict xG … to model expected goal values
using previously untested features… They utilise logistic regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, …

Accuracy and explainability of statistical and machine learning xG models in football

M Cefis, M Carpita - Statistics, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
… evaluation, we will focus on the expected goal (xG) model, a … , while algorithmics aims to
predict outcomes through flexible … model, regarding XGBoost. As already introduced, this work …

Explainable expected goal models for performance analysis in football analytics

M Cavus, P Biecek - … on Data Science and Advanced Analytics …, 2022 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
… such as shot type, distance to goal, angle to goal for predicting the value of xG [3]–[10]. …
use the forester [20] AutoML tool to train various treebased classification models from XGBoost

[HTML][HTML] Diverse machine learning for forecasting goal-scoring likelihood in elite football leagues

C Markopoulou, G Papageorgiou, C Tjortjis - Machine learning and …, 2024 - mdpi.com
… that XGBoost should be considered a strong candidate for predicting the total number of goals
… features for case 3 include expected goals, non-penalty expected plus assisted goals, and …

Creating a model for expected goals in football using qualitative player information

P Madrero Pardo - 2020 - upcommons.upc.edu
… can be done with the expected goals metric using the outputs of the 3 XGBoost classifiers we
fitted. … that allow us to predict the probability that a shot becomes a goal, leading to different …

A goal scoring probability model for shots based on synchronized positional and event data in football (soccer)

G Anzer, P Bauer - Frontiers in sports and active living, 2021 - frontiersin.org
… into three subtasks: the prediction of goal scoring probabilities of … model (hereafter referred
to as XGBoost), the parameters we … ' influence on the predicted goal scoring probability. In the …

Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data

M Adams, A David, M Hesse, U Rückert - Proceedings of the 6th …, 2023 - dl.acm.org
In this study, we employ an extensive single-season dataset of event and positional data, as
well as machine learning techniques, to build an Expected Goals (xG) model for handball. …

[PDF][PDF] The Kos Angle, an optimizing parameter for football expected goals (xG) models

H Karim, L Marwane - … Journal of Computer Science in Sport, 2023 - intapi.sciendo.com
… The XGBoost they used achieved the best performance of … An examination of expected
goals and shot efficiency in … implementing the Expected Goal (xG) model to predict scores in …

A Statistical Look into how Common Soccer Metrics Influence Expected Goal Measures in the Professional Game

TG Rumsey - 2024 - digitalcommons.butler.edu
… Similar to Statsbomb, Opta uses their own expected goals model, with an XGBoost … and I
will be comparing their effectiveness in predicting expected goals, by using adjusted R2, Akaike …