Forecasting Hurricanes using Large-Ensemble Output
This paper describes the development of a model framework for Forecasts of Hurricanes
using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO). Computationally inexpensive, FHLO quantifies the
forecast uncertainty of a particular tropical cyclone (TC) through O (1000) ensemble
members. The model framework consists of three components:(1) a track model that
generates synthetic tracks from the TC tracks of an ensemble numerical weather prediction
(NWP) model,(2) an intensity model that predicts the intensity along each synthetic track …
using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO). Computationally inexpensive, FHLO quantifies the
forecast uncertainty of a particular tropical cyclone (TC) through O (1000) ensemble
members. The model framework consists of three components:(1) a track model that
generates synthetic tracks from the TC tracks of an ensemble numerical weather prediction
(NWP) model,(2) an intensity model that predicts the intensity along each synthetic track …