[PDF][PDF] Forecasting USD/IQD Future Values According to Minimum RMSE Rate

JK Shareef, MA Thanoon… - International Journal of …, 2015 - researchgate.net
International Journal of Computer Science and Mobile Computing, 2015researchgate.net
This paper has used econometric time series to model and forecast the future price of United
States Dollar comparing with Iraqi Dinar (USD/IQD) along 2 years, started from 1st January,
2013 to 31st December, 2014. After pre-processing the data to check and fill the missing
values using interpolation method, the first effort of this project employs the Auto Regressive
Moving Average (ARMA) model, which has been used to prototypical a time series data set.
It is establish that the model can be used to suitable the data in the estimation period (2013 …
Abstract
This paper has used econometric time series to model and forecast the future price of United States Dollar comparing with Iraqi Dinar (USD/IQD) along 2 years, started from 1st January, 2013 to 31st December, 2014. After pre-processing the data to check and fill the missing values using interpolation method, the first effort of this project employs the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, which has been used to prototypical a time series data set. It is establish that the model can be used to suitable the data in the estimation period (2013-2014). 400 ARMA models had been tested in this job. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used to find best order of the parameter in ARMA model ie r, m accurate values. The forecasting is very important in the analysis of economic and industrial time series, and in sailing and buying movement and investment operation. In order to avoid falling into a financial crisis, the idea in this work is trying to find a model to predict approximately future prices of USD/IQD by predicting three days ahead closing prices based on previous one year closing prices for each three days based on the ARMA model. The proposed model gave close results to actual price when it has been compared to closing prices of year 2014.
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