Immigration and crime: an empirical analysis

M Bianchi, P Buonanno, P Pinotti - Bank of Italy Temi di …, 2008 - papers.ssrn.com
Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) No, 2008papers.ssrn.com
In this paper we examine the empirical relationship between immigration and crime across
Italian provinces during the period 1990-2003. Drawing on police data, we first document
that the size of the immigrant population is positively correlated with the incidence of
property crimes and with the overall crime rate. We then use instrumental variables based
on migration towards other European countries to identify the causal impact of exogenous
changes in the immigrant population of Italy. According to these estimates, immigration …
Abstract
In this paper we examine the empirical relationship between immigration and crime across Italian provinces during the period 1990-2003. Drawing on police data, we first document that the size of the immigrant population is positively correlated with the incidence of property crimes and with the overall crime rate. We then use instrumental variables based on migration towards other European countries to identify the causal impact of exogenous changes in the immigrant population of Italy. According to these estimates, immigration increases only the incidence of robberies and has no effect on all other types of crime. Since robberies represent a very small fraction of all criminal offences, the effect on the overall crime rate is not significantly different from zero.
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