This paper investigates the effects of local exposure to refugees on electoral outcomes in the
2016 state election in Germany. Based on quasi-random variation in the allocation of
refugees across municipalities and unique data on refugee populations and their type of
accommodation, I find that an increase in the population share of refugees increases the
vote share of right-wing parties and decreases the vote share of the incumbent federal
government parties. The electoral effects, however, are rather small and solely driven by …